Insert Title Here

That’s my prediction, and I’m sticking by it.

Time for my yearly NBA playoff picks!

First Round
Eastern Conference
Celtics over Hawks
Pistons over Sixers
Magic over Raptors
Wizards over Cavs

Western Conference
Lakers over Nuggets
Mavs over Hornets
Suns over Spurs
Jazz over Rockets

Second Round
Eastern Conference
Celtics over Wizards
Pistons over Magic

Western Conference
Lakers over Jazz
Suns over Mavs

Conference Finals
Celtics over Pistons
Lakers over Suns

NBA Finals
Celtics over Lakers

Yes, it’s that time of year again… the beginning of the NBA season! All summer we heard about what various teams and players were doing, how they were going to be so much better this year, etc. Now we get to see how it all plays out, and it’s never quite like you expected.

I’m personally very excited for the Rockets this year. It looks like Yao and T-Mac are both healthy, and they’ve added Shane Battier and Bonzi Wells. Yao had 22 and 9 last night against Utah (though they lost). Yao and T-Mac are as good as any other 1-2 in the league, and Battier and Wells could get them over the hump. If they stay healthy, they could go all the way. Stay tuned.

A lot of people are down on the Grizzlies, with Pau out with a broken foot for the first few months of the season. But the Grizzlies have a lot of good young players, plus Rudy Gay had a tremendous debut game last night. I think this could be the year they win their first playoff game (famous last words).

Have you seen the Lebron swimming pool commercial? It’s hilarious and very creative. Who came up with the idea of multiple Lebrons for these commercials? It’s brilliant.

Was disappointed by the 40-point Miami loss on Tuesday night. These guys should have more pride than that. Was actually pleased by the Lakers’ win over Phoenix, though. I hate to admit it, but I have a soft spot for the Lakers, with Phil Jackson coaching and them being a bit of an underdog. Lamar Odom played really well, and they executed their game plan — pound the ball inside — to perfection. It was especially gratifying to see them win this without Kobe. I think they are going to be better than people thing this year. They surprised us in the playoffs last year, nearly knocking off Phoenix, and they will carry over that confidence into this season.

On the flip side, I’m don’t like Phoenix, and I don’t know why. They are fun to watch, and I’m really rooting for Amare to make a full comeback and become the high-flier that destroyed the Spurs defense in the ‘05 playoffs. But for some reason I always find myself rooting against Phoenix in any game I watch. I dunno what’s going on there.

Enough random thoughts. It’s a long season, I’ll save some for later.

The other big sports news for the day: USA Basketball lost to Greece. Greece was the Euroleague champion, but we’ve made a commitment to international basketball, and all the players seemed to have bought into it. I thought we would win the tournament, but I’m not surprised we didn’t.

But I don’t think this is as huge a problem as everyone is making it out to be. Yes, we lost, but the international game is different and our guys are not used to playing that way. For example, the ball is slightly smaller and lighter. Might that not account for our poor 3-point shooting and free throw shooting? The important thing to take away is that we have a core of guys who have committed to USA Basketball and have bought into the system. Yes, they practiced for only 3 weeks for this tournament, but they will be prepared for the tournament in Venezuela next year, and they won’t underestimate opposing teams.

I just don’t think this is the catastrophe everyone else is calling it. As Chris Sheridan over at ESPN is so fond of telling us, this is not 1992. The European teams have gotten better, and we can’t expect to win every game. We have to focus on the important games and keep our eyes on the final goal: a gold medal in the 2008 Olympics. Everything else is just gravy.

I never made my prediction for the NBA Finals, but if I had, I would have picked Dallas in 7. On paper, Dallas looks like the better team. They can play big or small, they have a unique MVP-caliber player in Nowitzki, and they have solid role players. Plus they have 3 7-foot centers to harass Shaq with. In beating the Spurs, I thought they had gotten over the hump and were ready to win it all.

But Dwayne Wade came up huge for the Heat, showing that a single great player (Wade) + a good player (Shaq) can beat a better team, as long as they have the right pieces around them. Call this the Jordan Theory. Time and time again in this series, Wade came up big when he had to, and Nowitzki did not. Better yet, Wade played well on both sides of the ball, coming up with big defensive plays (deflecting the inbounds pass to Josh Howard at the end of Game 3, a nasty block from behind when Howard had a breakaway, …) as well as clutch shots. Yes, he missed the two free throws that could have iced Game 6. But he’s only, what, 24? Give him time.

On the other hand, Wade’s performance has stirred up the “next MJ” talk again. Wade was spectacular in his first Finals appearance, but MJ was spectacular 6 times over a period of nearly 10 years. I wouldn’t even take Wade at this point over Shaq in his prime (3 Finals MVPs, whole teams constructed to deal with him in the playoffs — and failing). But Wade is young and definitely has a chance to become one of the great players. We’ll have to wait and see. I’m definitely excited to see him and Lebron carry the NBA into the next decade.

Unbeknownst to my blogging audience (ha!), a week ago I made the following predictions for the NBA Conference Finals:

• East: Heat over Pistons in 7
• West: Mavs over Suns in 6

Most everyone else picked the Pistons over the Heat in 7. While there is some rationale for that — if the series really went 7 games, the Heat would have to win Game 7 on the road in Detroit — I argued that Detroit had strugged against a mediocre Cavs team while Miami had easily dispatched a strong Nets team. Plus the Heat seemed to be coming together, playing better in each game, as the playoffs wore on.

You don’t want to count your chickens before they hatch, but the Heat are up 3-1 and have looked like the better team in this series. I can see Detroit winning Game 5 at home, but I think the Heat will close it out in Game 6 at American Airlines Arena.

Detroit has been fighting amongst themselves and have been badmouthing their coach to the press. Chauncey Billups said, “Some of us, a lot of us, have been here more times than he has. We can pull from a lot of our experiences. … We’ve been here before,” and I’ve read a similar sentiment from other players on the team. This makes me reconsider the wisdom of Pat Riley taking over from Stan Van Gundy in Miami. At this point in the playoffs, the Heat are listening to Riley and are buying into his system. He’s won championships, and he commands respect from guys like Shaq and Payton. On the other side, you’ve got Detroit players questioning Flip Saunders’ defensive system and his ability to coach in the playoffs. Maybe Riley did make the right decision to push Van Gundy out.

So we have three Game 7s in the NBA Playoffs over the next few days. Here are my picks:

1) Cavs-Pistons: Pistons. I think the Cavs missed their opportunity by losing Game 6 at home. Detroit is too good to lose Game 7 at home. Here’s hoping Lebron has a monster game.

2) Mavs-Spurs: Mavs. Going out on a limb here and picking the road team. Dallas has looked better than the Spurs this whole series, even though it’s tied 3-3. San Antonio has had to win two elimination games in a row, and a third is asking a lot. And Jason Terry will be back.

3) Clippers-Suns: Suns. I think the Clippers are a better team than the Suns. They have more talent, and the Suns are unable to stop Elton Brand. But the Suns seem to find a way to win when they have to, plus they have home court and lost Game 6. And the 3 days off will help Steve Nash and the Suns more than it will the Clippers.

Was at the gym during the end of the 5th Cavs-Pistons game. Noticed a few things:

• Everyone at the gym was rooting for Lebron and the Cavs. I was rooting for the Cavs, and I have no idea why. Maybe it’s the underdog thing, or maybe Lebron is just that compelling.
• Lebron has arrived. I was skeptical of him when he was so hyped coming out of high school. I was skeptical when he didn’t make the playoffs his two seasons. I was skeptical when he was tearing it up this regular season. I didn’t think they would win a single game against the Pistons. Well, now I believe. I’m a witness. All aboard the official Lebron bandwagon!
• Detroit has given Cleveland no respect during this series. Even when the Cavs tied it up at 2-2, I saw locker room interviews with several Detroit players (not just Rasheed) where they basically wrote off Cleveland, said that they had no chance of winning the series. That’s just not a classy move, and it gives Cleveland some motivation. Detroit is arrogant, and it’s fun to see them down 3-2 in this series.
• How awesome would it be to have a Heat-Cavs series? Lebron vs. Wade for potentially 7 games? I’m sure David Stern can make this happen.

Also, did anyone see Inside the NBA at halftime? Kobe’s on with Kenny, Charles, and Ernie. At the beginning, he was talking with Charles about his game 7 performance against Phoenix. Apparently, Charles had said Kobe was “selfish” for taking only 3 shots, and Kobe had text-messaged him taking offense. They talked about it face-to-face during halftime, and it was definitely interesting, though awkward. Kobe claimed that they had no chance of coming back from a 15-point deficit against Phoenix unless he involved the other guys, got them some scores, and sparked their defense. He said there are certain teams that he could demoralize by scoring a lot, but Phoenix is not one of them. Phoenix you have to beat with defense.

It was definitely interesting to hear it from Kobe, and also to have Charles and Kenny asking him questions. It was also interesting to hear Kobe’s perspective on the Detroit-Cleveland game and Lebron.

It was good stuff. Hopefully TNT puts it up on their website. Otherwise I’m sure it’ll be on iTunes eventually.